A diplomatic lockout

In June of this year Turkey and Brazil made a serious effort to negotiate a compromise between Iran and the international community in regards to Iran's nuclear program. They succeeded in getting Iran to agree to most all of Washington's demands. Their success was ignored by the U.N. Security Council which passed a new round of sanctions despite the best efforts of two of it's members. I'll be explaining how that vote hurt non-proliferation efforts in a future post, but here I'll explain how it damaged hopes of a peaceful international community outside of just that single issue.

The existence of a relatively peaceful international order is contingent on one thing: The ability of the system to incorporate rising powers within existing institutions. Giving countries a stake in the system means they are far less likely to try overthrowing it. Incorporating China's "peaceful rise" is widely understood to be one of the most important challenges of the current century. What is less widely understood is that China is not the sole rising power the system is struggling to incorporate. Among these other rising powers are Turkey a rising regional power and Brazil a rising global power. Both have consistently expanded their economies over the past decade. Both have a huge military. Turkey has more influence than just about any other country in the Middle East. Brazil is just beginning to have political influence on a global scale.


This was a major diplomatic push for the two countries who were staking their hopes and reputations on it; it was a gamble to be taken seriously on the world stage. They put a great deal of energy and resources into fighting for the international order only to have their success called a failure and thrown back in their face. If the US had at least studied the deal they had come up with at greater length, shown that it had really considered it rather than simply dismissing it out of hand then we might not have as big a problem. An indication of the anger of the two countries can be seen in that this was the first round of sanctions against Iran that wasn't passed unanimously by the security council, both voted against it. 

They aren't going to make a diplomatic effort like this on our behalf again and our efforts to solve the worlds problems will be poorer for it. If we are very unlucky this may mark the beginning of a disconnect between the emerging powers and the existing institutions; Brazil, Turkey, and others may decide they need to build their own. This event alone won't cause this split but it is symptomatic of great and growing problems based on the international order's failure to accept the rise of so called "developing countries."


Both countries are tied heavily into the international economic order so the present threat is one to the diplomatic and political establishment. If the worst is to be averted then these economic ties need to be strengthened and ways must be found to incorporate Brazil, Turkey, and other rising powers into the political order. It may be a fundamentally meaningless gesture but thanking them for their assistance with Iran might help smooth over some bruised egos. After that they need to be publicly asked to help on other pertinent issues; give them another chance to help and us another chance to accept their help.


If we lock states out of the diplomatic process they will find alternatives. These may not be alternatives we like.